No Bull Real Estate – Finalist REINSW Awards For Excellence in 3 Categories

We are very proud to announce that we are finalists in three categories for the Real Estate Institute of New South Wales Awards For Excellence.

1. Communications
For the most outstanding real estate website of a member firm

2. Residential Agency – Small
For residential agencies employing less than 10 people in a business conducted at a single location

3. Residential Property Management
For residential property managers working in single or multi-office firms

The REINSW Awards for Excellence aim to encourage, recognise and promote excellence and best practice in the real estate profession, and give official recognition to the industry’s top performers.

In 2009, entrants in 24 categories will be judged on the knowledge, skills and innovation.

No Bull Real Estate is very proud to have been selected as a finalist in all three categories, and would like to thank all our vendors, buyers, landlords, tenants, suppliers and clients for their support in helping us acheive these outstanding results.

 

NO BULL REAL ESTATE….our name says it all!!!!!!

 

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28/07/09

Growing confidence in the Australian economy

As other countries struggle to get a grip

on the economy, Australia is way ahead

when it comes to consumer confidence

 It was certainly an exciting week for property related data releases this week with the RBA Board having their monthly meeting, Westpac and the Melbourne Institute releasing their consumer confidence figures and the ABS releasing its housing finance data as well as the latest labour force statistics.

As expected, following the RBA Board Meeting it was announced that the official cash rate would remain on hold this month at 3%. This was the third month in a row that the RBA has made no adjustment to rates and although the Reserve Bank Governor maintained there is still scope to reduce rates, the move to leave rates unchanged was supported by the positive data which was released following the RBA’s meeting.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute’s Consumer Sentiment figures signaled growing confidence in the Australian economy, with their index recorded at 109.4 points during July. This was the second month in a row the index was above 100 points indicating that economic optimism was outweighing pessimism.

The results were extremely encouraging given that just two months ago the index was recorded at 88.8 points indicating a strong pessimism towards the economy. The last two months has seen the index jump by 12.7% in June and 9.3% in July. Housing finance data was also released this week and it showed that finance commitments for both owner occupied and investment housing has again increased during May 2009.

During 2009, seasonally adjusted figures show that owner occupier finance commitments are up 23.5% and investment finance commitments have risen 10.9% and now match levels last witnessed during July 2008. 29.5% of all owner occupier finance commitments were taken on by first home buyers; up from just 17% a year ago.

The number of first home buyer grants issued in May and June were at record levels, suggesting that first home buyer demand is not yet winding back. Balancing the positive news, unemployment figures from the ABS show that the jobless rate has increased again and now sit at 5.8%. The Federal Government is forecasting the unemployment will rise to 8.5% by mid next year.

With the recent economic data painting a brighter picture than most economists had expected it may turn out that the rate of unemployment does not rise this high.

Locally the rental market is still suffering with the vacancy rates in our local area being zero. Some tenants are now offering to pay above market rent and are also offering to pay up to 12 months in advance.

Sales are slow, not because of lack of buyers, but because of lack of property for sale. We have virtually sold everything we have in stock. Agents in this area (not the locals) are now over quoting sale price to vendors to get them to list with that agent.

It is an old tactic called “buying the listing”. many people employing these agents could end up being disappointed with their final selling price.

www.nobullrealestate.com.au

RPData Property Pulse

10/07/09

Property still the best option

With stock prices falling dramatically,

housing prices have sustained their

value through all the turmoil.

 

The 2008-09 financial year is finally behind us and will surely go down as one of the worst (in fiscal terms) for a very long time. The S&P/ASX 200 finished 24% lower over the year and the unemployment rate has increased to 5.7% from 4.3% over the 12 months to May 2009. We have also seen consumer and business confidence remain at low levels through most of the year and the number of jobs advertised also slump.

The bright spot in the economy has certainly been the property market, over the 12 months to May 2009 Australian property values have increased by 1.6%. Keeping this in perspective, at the time of their largest falls property values declined by -3.9% from their peak meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 was down as much as 50.5% from its peak and as at the end of June is still 41.4% below its peak level. Australian residential property has well and truly proven to be the most resilient and least volatile asset class during the Global Financial Crisis.

Data released this week also showed that dwelling approvals had fallen 12.5% during May 2009 however, private dwelling approvals fell by just 2%. The low number of dwelling approvals continues at a time of the strongest population growth in 40 years fuelling demand for additional new housing.

Not only did dwelling approvals take a dive according to the most recent data, the HIA reported this week that sale of new homes also fell during May after increasing during the first four months of the year. During the month new home sales fell by 5.7% fuelled by a fall in detached house sales of 6.8% whilst new unit sales actually increased 6.1%.

Over the long-term the continual under supply of new housing is likely to create additional upwards pressure on property prices.

Locally the rental market is still suffering badly with a vacancy rate of only 1.5%. With the under supply of homes to accomodate the rising population, one wonders how long the government will continue with the stamp duty imposed on buyers, both for occupation by owner and investment.

 

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www.nobullrealestate.com.au

 

RP Data Property Pulse

01/07/2009

Australia the lucky country

Australia is at the forefront of recovery in the housing sector. The stimulise package provided by the Australian Government is paying dividends

Recently the International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its growth forecasts for the Australian economy, stating “this is because of strong commodity exports, a flexible exchange rate, a healthy banking sector, and a timely and significant macro policy response”. The IMF expects Australia’s GDP to contract by a modest 0.5 per cent in 2009, before growing 1.5 per cent in 2010. The IMF has also suggested that Australian interest rates should remain low for some time considering the “fragile state of the global economy”.

The rosier outlook for economic conditions comes as other key market indicators are also showing an improvement. The average level of vendor discounting (the difference between the initial listing price of a property and the ultimate selling price) has been improving with most cities now averaging a discount level around 6% of the original asking price (7% mid last year) and the average time it takes to sell a property is now generally around 30 to 45 days.

Consumer sentiment, although somewhat volatile, has broken the 100 point mark for the first time in 17 months, housing finance approvals are trending up and market activity has improved. Additionally, the recovery in the auction market has certainly withstood the test of time, with every capital city market showing a substantial improvement in clearance rates over the last two months.

The two largest auction markets, Melbourne and Sydney, have averaged clearance rates of 79% and 73% respectively over the last two months. Compared to the same period last year these markets were averaging clearances of just 50% and 43%.

Locally stock levels are still at a very low rate. Everything is being looked at and bought by first home buyers. Agents are expressing to me that stock levels are at a low in all price ranges. The halving of stamp duty on new homes is certainly going to help with new stock, but leaves buyers without any more insentive to buy. There needs to be discounts on stamp duty for existing homes and for investors.

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www.nobullrealestate.com.au

RPData Property Pulse

 

 

 

26/06/09

No wonder they call it the lucky country

With prices still falling internationally, it comes as a bit of a surprise that Australia is set for massive growth soon in residential real estate

This week’s biggest property related story was probably BIS Shrapnel’s release of their three year forecasts for property prices. Within the release they forecast that capital city price growth over the next three years would range from 11% in Darwin to 19% in Sydney, Melbourne and Adelaide. Their forecasts have come in for much criticism however the forecasts reported by the media did not take into consideration the fact that these figures include inflation.

Although many have suggested these forecasts are quite bullish, in real terms we are talking about increases of between 5% and 9%. The media headlines also don’t mention when in that three year period the growth will happen. I don’t think anyone would believe the next year to year and a half will see strong price growth given the economic climate but given the undersupply of dwellings in Australia and the cyclical nature of our market it may be the case that property prices will rebound in the second half of the three year period.

Dwelling commencements data was also released during this week with the statistics showing that the trend estimate dwelling commencements for the March 2009 quarter fell by 8.5, following an 8.4% fall in the previous quarter. Many economic commentators as well as Government Departments have highlighted Australia’s ongoing shortage of housing estimated to be somewhere between 40,000 and 80,000 too few dwellings. In order to cater for our booming population it is imperative that dwelling commencements improve to provide housing for those in need and to minimise affordability issues that arise due to this shortage. Given this result it is unsurprising to see Government incentives for purchases of new houses however, it may be more effective to slash the restrictive charges on new development and inject money into the timely deployment of critical infrastructure in and around these new housing areas on the outskirts of our capital cities.

Locally there is a great need for more stock. There are few homes available under $300,000 and some agents are starting to get up to old tricks. Poaching listings from other agents is one tactic that some agents employ. Although illegal, it doesn’t stop some of the unscrupulous agents doing it anyway. The problem with the governing Act is it is not enforced. many consumers are unaware of their rights, and the Department enforcing the law is a toothless tiger.
 
 

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www.nobullrealestate.com.au

 

 

 

RP Data Property Pulse

 

 

19/06/2009

Slow road to returning confidence

There is talk of confidence returning to the market place, but figures just released show past months not travelling so well

The ANZ Banks survey of job advertisements which was released this week showed a fall for the 13th consecutive month. The result now indicates a reduction across those jobs advertised on the internet and newspapers of 49.9% during the last 12 months.

Results for May suggest that each state and territory except Tasmania and Western Australia recorded a decline during the month. These results were to be expected given that consumer and business confidence remained at very low levels through the month of May.

Housing finance commitments data released this week found that first home buyers as a percentage of all owner occupied finance commitments increased to 28%, the highest on record. The interesting detail to note within the statistics is that in each state and territory the actual number of finance commitments for first home buyers fell, except in Victoria where they recorded an increase of 0.9%.

The greatest fall in first home buyer finance commitments was witnessed in Tasmania where they fell 26.1% in April compared to the previous month. These results lend credence to a number of reports that suggest first home buyer demand may have peaked. In saying this, first home buyer finance commitments have still witnessed an exceptional increase on an annual basis in each state and territory varying between a 50.3% increase in Western Australia and a 123.4% increase in the Australian Capital Territory.

This same data also shows that during April 2009 commitments for investment property accounted for 25.5% of all finance commitments. Although this figure remains low on a historical basis, it represents a marked increase on the March 2009 figures when investor finance accounted for just 24.1% of all commitments.

A great deal of first home buyers are now struggling to get a pre approval on finance let alone getting formal approval. There is such a backlog of loan applications many are going to find that time is going to run out before they get formal approval on their finance and have the opportunity to buy, and thus receive the grant. keep in ming the grant will begint o wind back in October

www.nobullrealestate.com.au

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RP Data Property Pulse

11/06/09

Australia leads the way

Encouraging figures for Australia as the rest of the world still sits with negative GDP, growth and prosperity for Australia reigns

Following the RBA’s Board meeting this week it was announced as expected, that the cash rate would remain on hold at 3.0%. This was a predictable outcome given a number of positive data releases over recent weeks.

In the RBA Governor’s statement he noted that, “The prospect of inflation declining over the medium term suggests that scope remains for some further easing of monetary policy, if needed.“No doubt the RBA took into consideration the improving conditions in Australia’s real estate market.

Released last week the RP Data-Rismark Monthly Indices Release reported that home values in all mainland capital cities except Perth have recorded growth during the first four months of 2009. Darwin (5.3%), Melbourne (4.4%) and Sydney (3.9%) lead the way in terms of value growth and nationally, property values have risen by 2.8% during the first four months of 2009.

There was a variety of other data releases relevant to the property market this week whilst the share market appears to have also turned a corner with the S&P/ASX 200recording its highest value of the year during the week.

Meanwhile, the Australian dollar has rebounded strongly against the US dollar and now sits above the 80 US cents barrier.Building Approvals data to April 2009 released by the ABS this week showed that the most recent month saw a strong rebound in new dwelling approvals. Comparing March 2009 to April 2009 saw an increase in building approvals of 7.5% with monthly approvals sitting at their highest level since October 2008.

Data released by Fitch Ratings this week found that mortgage arrears have fallen during the first quarter of 2009 and this was the first time in 10 years that the first quarter of a year had witnessed a fall compared to the final quarter of the previous year. According to their index, delinquencies of more than 30 days decreased to 1.52% during the first quarter of 2009, compared to a rate of 1.75% in the final three months of 2008.

Locally there is still an under supply of good homes for sale under $300,000. It is interesting to see home prices locally also, are growing at a rate of around 2% whilst prices overseas still falling, some by as much as 20%. It gives faith in the Australian system, and might encourage employees seeking employment to look to local employers, because I do believe that a lot of Aussie jobs have been lost not to local employers, but large overseas companies employing locally. These are the reasons Australia is suffering some of the backlash of this global recession.

www.nobullrealestate.com.au

RP Data Sourced

US and Australian market trends

Two different banking systems has shown how Australia’s housing market has been able to weather the financial storm

 

The latest figures tracking the performance of the US housing market came out this week, with the First American Core Logic House Price Index (HPI) release revealing US housing prices fell 11.5 percent as of March ‘09 compared to a year ago, a slight improvement from an 11.7 percent annual decline as of February.

Two trends are becoming evident in the US market: price declines are slowing in the states that have had the highest declines over the past three years; however, declines are accelerating in states that have been experiencing only moderate decreases during that same period. Thirty-three states (out of fifty) have exhibited acceleration in the rate of price declines in the last three months.

Since U.S. home prices peaked in July 2006, national home prices have declined 22.3 percent on a cumulative basis and are currently down to the lowest price level in more than five years. Australian market values, in comparison, have been exceptionally resilient.

The April figures for the RP Data-Rismark House Value Index will be released this week. Based on last month’s figures (to March ’09) Australian property values increased by 1.6 percent over the first three months of the year. Overall, Australian dwelling values are just 2.5 percent or $11,800 lower than the February 2008 peak.

Clearance rates in Australia’s auction markets have improved substantially since the start of 2009. In Melbourne, Australia’s largest auction market, clearance rates were averaging 60% during 2008. Over the past month clearance rates have been around the 80% mark. In Sydney, auction clearance rates have moved from a ‘08 average of 40%to consistently achieve 60% or greater since the first week of February.

The total number of weekly listings has remained below the 12 month average suggesting new stock additions are very controlled and total stock on market has remained consistent suggesting a healthy rate of absorption.

Locally stock levels are very low with many agents reporting that they are having difficulty replacing stock. Currently first home buyers are still snapping up anything that is priced below $300,000. As time gets closer to October 31, it will be interesting to see how the activity changes as the grant is wound back.

http://www.nobullrealestate.com.au/

RP Data Property Pulse

Affordability improving

As unemployment still weighs heavy on many peoples mind, there has been little concern with first home buyers, who are still snapping up property.

The HIA-CBA First Home Buyer Affordability Report released this week found that first home buyer affordability improved by 14.6% during the first quarter of 2009 and now sits at a seven year high. These results are unsurprising given the impact of the First Home Buyers Grant Boost coupled with the lowest interest rates in more than 45 years.

Although some speculate that the boost to the First Home Buyers Grant will create Australia’s own sub-prime market, these concerns seem quite unwarranted with most banks and lending institutions having tightened their lending criteria and requiring a history of savings as well as a deposit of at least 5% and in most cases 10% in order to be eligible for a home loan.

Whilst the impact of the First Home Buyers Grant Boost has been positive it is likely that the low interest rate environment, property value falls through 2008 and escalating rental rates is significantly contributing to first home buyers purchase decisions.Westpac and the Melbourne Institute released their Consumer Confidence Index this week and the index recorded its second largest fall in ten years.

The index now sits at 88.8 points well below 100 points which indicates that consumers are more pessimistic than optimistic, as they have been for the last 16 months. The results suggest that last week’s Federal Budget did little to convince consumers that they should be optimistic. The overall tone of the Budget with its forecast of a record deficit, rising unemployment and an economy which continues to slow would have done little to boost the confidence of consumers. The index is showing a high degree of volatility on a month to month basis during the last 12 months.

This is not unexpected given the uncertainty around global financial markets and conflicting reports on an almost daily basis about the prospects of Australian markets. Evidence has shown a sustainable increase in sales volumes within the Australian housing market will be led by an improvement in consumer confidence. Locally there is less and less stock available under $300,000. First home buyers are looking at anything on the market and are buying properties that are in very average condition. Agents are listing properties for far more than they are worth, just so they can get the listing, and beat the other agent to the job. this is called “buying the listing”. If you would like to know more on this issue, just send through a comment and I will get back to you. www.nobullrealestate.com.au

RP Data Property Pulse

Dont forget the regional areas

With a great deal of focus on the nation’s capital cities housing markets, this week we turn the focus on each State’s largest regional markets to provide an insight into how these areas have performed in terms of housing values.

Outside the capital cities of each state, the largest municipalities are home to almost 2 million people. With such a large population base, the residential property markets in these regions are expansive and growing in size. These regions often provide even greater diversity in housing stock than found in the capital cities. The urban form ranges from typical metro housing to beach homes, large acreage properties, hobby farms and wineries. Each of the regions border a capital city boundary, so it is understandable that more and more people are viewing these more affordable housing markets as an alternative to living within the capital city metro area. Some residents may choose to commute into the capital city depending on transport connections, or these regions of course have their own economies and employment opportunities.

In New South Wales, the largest region outside Sydney is the Hunter area which is located directly north of Sydney and south of the Mid North Coast and is home to around 590,000 people. The major regional centres of Newcastle, Lake Macquarie and Port Stephens are located within the Hunter region, as are some of the most prestigious Australian wine regions. Median house values in the area are currently sitting at $310,000, which is about $245,000 lower than the Sydney metro median value. Over the last calendar year house values have fallen by 5%, after peaking in early 2008 at $328,000.

The second largest region in Victoria is the Barwon Statistical Division which has a population of about 260,000 residents. Barwon is located immediately West of Melbourne and includes council areas such as Greater Geelong, Surf Coast and Colac-Otway. House values in the region have been very resilient, falling by just 0.2% over the last 12 months to record a current median value of $294,000. House values in the region are almost $150,000 lower than house values in the Melbourne metro area where values are down 2.1% over the year.

In Queensland, the Gold Coast is the largest region outside of Brisbane. The Gold Coast has long been famous for its beaches and tourism, however over the last few decades the Gold Coast has established the largest office precinct outside of Brisbane and significant industrial estates creating a very large working population. Around 500,000 residents call the Gold Coast home and the region is one of the fastest growing in the nation. Median house values on the Coast have historically been about 25% higher than Brisbane values, largely due to the abundance of waterfront stock. At the end of 2008 Gold Coast house values were about $92,000 higher than Brisbane house values. Over the last year the Gold Coast market has been hit harder than most with values falling by 8%.

In South Australia the largest region outside Adelaide is Outer Adelaide with a population of about 125,000 people. The region wraps around the Adelaide metro area and includes the Fleurieu Peninsula, Mount Barker which is fast becoming a satellite city of Adelaide and the wine regions of Barossa and parts of the Adelaide Hills. House values in the region have not experienced as great an increase as the Adelaide metro, however over the last twelve months median values are up by 4.8% to reach $325,000; almost $90,000 lower than the Adelaide metro median house value.

The South West of Western Australia is the second largest region in the state after Perth. This expansive region borders the Perth metro area to the south and extends from Mandurah south to Manjimup, including the coastal areas of Bunbury and Busselton and the wine regions around Margaret River. House values have trended in line with the Perth metro market, with values recording very strong growth between 2003 and the end of 2006 but falling by 9.2% over the 2008 calendar year. The median house value in the region is now $345,000, which is about $130,000 lower than Perth metro values.

In Tasmania the largest region outside Hobart is Launceston. Actually, in population terms the Launceston council area is larger than Hobart with a population of around 63,000 people compared to 48,000 people. House prices in the Launceston Council area are down $20,000 or 8.3% over the 2008 calendar year. The median house price peaked in the first quarter of 2008 at $245,000 and has since fallen to $220,000 which is about $80,000 lower than the median house price in Hobart.

Even though the medium prices in the regional areas are not as high as capital cities, especially the Hunter, there are some great buying to be done. With an average of 6% yield on investment, investors would be best looking to the regional areas for property. Values have not fallen as far as the capital cities, so capital growth over the longer period is more stable.

If you are looking to buy, sell rent or have a property managed, or even your strata plan managed, give us a call ……you might be surprised what we can do for you without the high costs associated. Take a look at some well priced properties www.nobullrealestate.com.au/properties.php

RP Data Sourced